🛢️ HORMUZ — Iran is selling oil again, just not directly. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Middlemen absorb sanctions liability while India gets discounted barrels — the same architecture that ran during max-pressure. US waivers signal Washington is managing normalization pace, not blocking it. But Tehran selling through intermediaries means revenue flows without full sanctions relief — undercutting Araghchi's leverage in the 60-day roadmap.
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🏛️ TEHRAN — Security buildings emptied; no strike has been confirmed yet. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Dispersal of military facilities is a command-node protection move, not civilian defense. Tehran has used it as both genuine prep and deliberate signal. With Pickaxe Mountain on Trump's target list and Israeli elections six weeks
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🚢 SHIPPING — Records broken during COVID are now the floor, not the ceiling. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: COVID-era peaks were demand-driven; this repricing is supply-constrained — fewer routes, longer voyages, scarcer hulls. With 104 vessels diverted and supertanker orders surging, analysts flagging record highs means the market is pricing Hormuz disruption
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✈️ RIYADH — Washington arms its most oil-critical ally while Yanbu still burns. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: State Dept approval triggers congressional review — but timing signals Washington locking in Riyadh before any deal reshapes the region. With Yanbu struck and nuclear files under Senate pressure, the F-35 is the binding agent: Saudi
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🏛️ PENTAGON — An impeachment bid that dissolved the moment Congress walked out. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Massie's motion forces members on record — vote yes or shield Hegseth — before a seven-week recess that removes all oversight pressure at DEFCON 1. With Hormuz mined and three active fronts, Congress just vacated the