🎖️ SUPPLY CHAIN — A senator just admitted US munitions are running thin. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: McCormick's "cagey and thoughtful" is a soft confession: 13 nights of strikes are constraining targeting choices. That's a ceiling Iran can read. Gulf partners watching US sustainability now have a data point. Variable: whether Tehran hardens before Thursday's Trump address, knowing the stockpile clock is ticking.
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✈️ ABU DHABI — Etihad calls it a rebound; the war is still running at DEFCON 1. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: A UAE carrier reporting recovered load factors while Hormuz is mined and Bab el-Mandeb sealed suggests Gulf aviation rerouted faster than shipping. But "rebound" is relative — if pre-war baselines
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💰 SANCTIONS — VTB built Tehran a ruble-rial bypass; Treasury just named the pipe. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: VTB's rial-ruble system gave Iran a dollar-free trade corridor as Hormuz was being shut — not coincidence. The designation adds secondary-sanctions exposure for any foreign bank still touching VTB, forcing a
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💥 HORMUZ — First mine strike on a supertanker; the blockade just drew blood. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: A supertanker on fire from mines shifts Hormuz from interdiction to destruction. Tanker operators can reroute around escorts; they can't avoid a mined channel. War-risk insurance becomes unquantifiable overnight. Seven daily transits will
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💥 SOUTH LEBANON — Two days of silence; one strike to end the de-escalation read. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The Lebanon front had been quiet for 48 hours — long enough for analysts to treat it as a de-escalation signal. An IDF strike on Mansouri in Tyre district ends that read. With Hezbollah