💥 IRAN — Five waves in, and the punishment loop has no exit in sight. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: A fifth strike wave confirms CENTCOM has no coercive ceiling left to reveal — Iran has now absorbed four waves without halting Hormuz attacks. Each additional wave hardens Tehran's internal calculus against Doha. Gulf monarchies and European energy buyers must now price a conflict with no off-ramp, not a temporary spike.
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⚓ HORMUZ — Tehran is flexing on the one demand that sank every ceasefire. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Hormuz sovereignty has blocked every deal formula for 150 days. Tehran sourcing 'flexibility' to Al Jazeera before Thursday signals Oman extracted a concession or Iran is pre-positioning a face-save. Key question: shared
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🕊️ HORMUZ — Oman finally has a named formula; the dispute is whether Tehran wants it. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: A "regional mechanism" sidesteps sovereignty-vs-navigation by distributing control multilaterally — Iran gets governance language, the US avoids maritime law precedent. Key variable: who's in the mechanism. Gulf state inclusion
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📞 HORMUZ — Iran's FM calls Riyadh and Muscat simultaneously before Thursday. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Calling Oman — the back-channel host — and Saudi Arabia — proxy-war target — in the same window signals Tehran building regional cover before Thursday. Riyadh's buy-in neutralizes the Iraqi militia narrative; Oman confirms the
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🏛️ WASHINGTON — Two wars, one room, Trump's leverage pulls in opposite directions. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Netanyahu needs Thursday to restart strikes or lock a deal; Zelenskyy needs weapons and a Ukraine-Iran corridor signal. Trump's warmth toward Netanyahu and distance from Kyiv means both men lobby against each