⏱️ DEADLINE — Trump names the binary publicly, one day before July 9. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Stating this openly the day before negotiations resume isn't negotiating — it's locking his own side in. Any Doha team now walks in with zero flexibility to extend timelines. Tehran's hardliners, who just curated death-threat banners naming US officials, must now respond to a public ultimatum. The MoU's 60-day clock just got a political override.
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🛢️ BAGHDAD — Iraq signs oil deals with Washington while Iran fires through its sky. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Baghdad hosts US bases and tolerates Iranian missile overflight simultaneously — that balance is now under pressure. Energy contracts give Sudani political cover to tilt Washington without a public security declaration. Tehran will read Iraqi-American
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🕌 AMMAN — Jordan was struck by Iran; now it says so out loud. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Amman's condemnation carries more weight than Doha's — Jordan absorbed confirmed missile impacts at Muwaffaq Salti, making this a victim state going on record. That closes Jordan's traditional ambiguity on Iran
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🚢 HORMUZ — Washington is routing ships around Iran's closure, not through it. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: JMIC formalizing the Omani corridor is the US operational answer to Iran's closure declaration — bypass it rather than force it. This undermines Tehran's strategic leverage: if traffic moves south, the closure
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🇶🇦 DOHA — Qatar condemns Iran publicly while its envoy is still in Tehran. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Doha hosts Al Udeid and has an envoy physically in Tehran. A public condemnation strips Qatar of the neutrality mediation requires — Tehran can't treat a state that just condemned it as a safe interlocutor.