🕊️ GAZA — Hamas agrees to disarm while Iran is still striking US bases. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Iran's Gaza proxy goes quiet on paper just as Tehran escalates directly. Hamas disarmament strips Iran of its lowest-cost front. Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey as co-signatories locks three mediators into enforcement. If Iran orders a spoiler attack before phase one completes, the deal collapses and Washington owns the failure.
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📉 ASIA — Oil shock exports to equities; rate hikes are doing Tehran's work for free. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Asian markets falling as oil holds above $100 signals the second-order transmission: energy inflation forces central bank tightening, compressing valuations without any direct strike. For Japan, South Korea, and India — major
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🇨🇳 BEIJING — Trump buries the China-Iran link the day Hormuz stays shut. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Acknowledging Chinese entities helped Iran kill US troops forces a response against Beijing — one Trump won't make while Hormuz stays closed and trade talks are live. His dismissal protects the bilateral architecture at the
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💥 KHAMIS MUSHAIT — The all-clear came. Whether the launch was intercepted or missed is still open. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Civil Defence lifting the alert confirms the threat window closed — but not how. Intercept or impact determines Riyadh's next move. Saudi Arabia still won't publicly name the attacker.
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🛢️ CRUDE — New strikes push oil $3 higher; the market is doing the accounting. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: At $104/barrel, a $3 move is ~3% — below panic but above noise. Saudi hits plus Hormuz interdiction now have no diplomatic relief valve: Muscat collapsed last night. Asian buyers pricing in a corridor deal