💥 HORMUZ — A South Korean cargo ship is hit while Doha talks are mid-session. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Namu attacked while Iran's delegation sits in Doha signals the IRGC is running its own negotiating track. Tehran's pattern — strike shipping, then assert Hormuz governance — puts Seoul in Washington's coalition-building math. South Korea carries 400K bpd of Gulf exposure. This tests whether Doha can survive the IRGC's independent signaling.
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🛢️ JAZAN — Satellite confirms the fire is still burning, days later. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Days-old fire at Jazan means damage is structural, not symbolic. Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export corridor — the Plan B route bypassing Hormuz — loses credibility as a functioning alternative. Markets priced the Houthi strike as contained;
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⚓ HORMUZ — Oman just handed Tehran a fee formula to avoid sovereignty loss. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Voluntary fees let Iran collect strait revenue without asserting blockade rights — Gulf states retain free navigation framing. This is Oman's sovereignty-substitute formula, now backed by Gulf consensus. Tehran can say yes without a
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🤝 WASHINGTON — 'Positive and productive' means no blowup — but also no deal. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The White House framing signals Netanyahu didn't veto the Iran ceasefire text publicly — but "productive" stops well short of Israeli endorsement. Netanyahu arrived holding Trump's "Israel wouldn'
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🇺🇸 TRUMP-ISRAEL — Without him, he says, Israel is gone. Tehran just filed that away. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The statement fuses Trump's political identity with Israel's survival — making any US pressure on Netanyahu nearly impossible while the Iran pause holds. It signals to Tehran that the patron-client