Polymarket Ceasefire Odds Drop 14 Points but Hold Above 60% Despite Strikes

📊 MARKETS — Traders still price 60% on a deal while missiles are in the air. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Polymarket odds fell 14 points but held above 60% — real-money traders still call diplomatic resolution the most likely outcome by July. That's not sentiment; it's a bet Trump's deal-not-war doctrine survives the current exchange. The variable that breaks it: sustained IDF campaign beyond 48 hours or confirmed US casualties at Al-Kharj.