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🛡️ NATO — Europe paid the defense bill. Washington kept making its own decisions. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: European capitals hiked defense budgets calculating compliance would buy stable US commitments. The Poland surge, Rubio's production push, and the DNI vacancy signal Washington is deciding militarily without consulting allies. For Rome and Berlin,
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🛰️ INTELLIGENCE — The US spy chief exits as Trump nears a military decision. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Gabbard's exit empties the DNI seat as Doha stalls and the 90-day supply clock runs. The DNI coordinates 18 intelligence agencies — vacancy gaps threat assessment precisely when Washington needs unified read on Iranian
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🏦 RESERVE BANK — Delhi spent $9.8B defending the rupee, but bought no seat at Doha. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: RBI's March intervention confirms Hormuz is hitting Indian finances at the sovereign level — not just remittances and trade. $9.8B in a single month drains reserves needed for future shocks. With
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🏛️ WASHINGTON — Trump skips his son's wedding to stay at the White House. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Canceling a family trip to remain in DC is a behavioral signal aimed at every actor watching. With Doha stalled, the 90-day supply clock public, and Tehran weighing its next move, this telegraphs
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🇫🇷 PARIS — France writes its own Hormuz plan because Washington's text can't pass. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: A French-authored UN text signals Paris believes the US resolution is dead — likely vetoed by China or Russia. Competing drafts give abstainers cover and fragment Security Council unity Washington needs. For
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🇪🇺 BRUSSELS — EU sanction threat arrives when Tehran still holds the strait. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: If enacted, EU sanctions add a third pressure vector alongside US force and economic measures — but Brussels held back for 84 days. Timing matters: new European pressure could harden Tehran at Doha, giving hardliners cover to reject
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📉 MARKETS — Rubio says "good signs"; Khamenei says no. The dollar picked a side. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Dollar strength at a six-week high reflects market pricing of prolonged deadlock — not deal optimism. When safe-haven demand drives USD up despite "good signs" rhetoric, traders are discounting Rubio
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⚓ HORMUZ — Day 85, and Reuters is now tracking the silence in the strait itself. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Real-time vessel data showing near-zero transit is the blockade made visible — not analyst estimates but live traffic confirmation. With the 90-day supply crisis clock public and Doha stalled, each day of
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💥 LEBANON — 3,111 dead since March 2, and a ceasefire is still technically in force. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The MoH toll covers 84 days — averaging 37 deaths daily under a nominally extended ceasefire. EU capitals summoning ambassadors over yesterday's emergency centre strike now have aggregate numbers for formal condemnation.
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🛡️ NATO — Rubio wants burden-sharing right as US interceptor stocks run thin. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: With DoD data exposing US interceptors outpacing Israeli ones and three destroyers locked at Hormuz, Rubio's defense production push is less about alliance solidarity and more about replenishing finite US stocks via allied industrial
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🛢️ MOSCOW — The country not fighting is winning the most from this war. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: A 40% revenue surge means Moscow is monetizing Hormuz disruption without firing a shot — sanctions relief by market force. Every week Doha stalls, Russian reserves rebuild. Tehran has little incentive to concede when its closest backer
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📉 EUROPEAN MARKETS — War-hit European indices have a sector that's actually going up. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: AI stocks outperforming amid Hormuz-driven market gloom signals capital rotating from energy-exposed industrials into sectors insulated from supply chain shock. For European economies facing recession risk, tech outperformance narrows the political