📉 MARKETS — Iran supply return is priced in before a single tanker clears Hormuz. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Traders front-running Iran supply are pricing a reopening that hasn't happened — Hormuz minefields remain, loadings near zero, MOU mechanics undefined. Warsh adds a dollar overlay: a hawkish Fed signal strengthens the dollar, compressing oil further. The snapback risk is real if Geneva stalls Thursday.
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🕊️ TEHRAN — Pezeshkian endorses the MOU while the IRGC just killed the same track. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The IRGC declared Hormuz reopening a US political concession yesterday; Pezeshkian now publicly backs the MOU framework. That's a visible internal split, not a new offer. He can't deliver what Khamenei&
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⚓ HORMUZ — Six conditions designed to be rejected, not negotiated. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The SNSC list—reparations, full sanctions lift, asset unfreeze, US naval withdrawal—isn't a negotiating floor, it's a veto dressed as diplomacy. No sitting US administration accepts reparations or full withdrawal as preconditions. Tehran just
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🏭 BELGRADE — Serbia becoming an Israeli drone manufacturer while EU membership talks continue. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Vučić, an EU candidate, is handing Israel a European drone factory mid-conflict. Brussels presses member states to restrict arms to Israel; Belgrade moves the opposite direction. Israel gains a production node outside EU embargo pressure.
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⚓ RIYADH — Saudi condemnation matters less than what Riyadh does next. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Riyadh calling the ADNOC strike an "assault on maritime security" is the strongest GCC signal since the attack — but words without action let Tehran gauge how far it can push. Saudi Arabia is co-architect of