🛢️ MARKETS — A tanker is burning in Hormuz; oil is rising on hopes it reopens. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Markets pricing reopening while a vessel burns and IRGC warships intercept transits signals how fractured price discovery has become. Qatar's PM is in Tehran, but no confirmed corridor exists. Traders are front-running Qatar diplomacy — if it fails, the correction will be sharp.
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🛢️ OPEC+ — Holding output steady when three Iranian tankers just sank is a choice. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: With Brent at $96 and US SPR at 1983 lows, OPEC+ freezing output means the cartel is letting the war do the price work for them. Saudi Arabia — simultaneously receiving US JDAMs and mediating for
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📢 IRGC — Washington's blockade threat may cost more than Tehran's. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: IRGC's backfire warning targets Beijing and New Delhi, not Washington — both absorb Iranian crude and fear losing access more than the US fears $100 oil. With SPR at 1983 lows and Brent up
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🏫 WEST BANK — Schools on day one; Huckabee's safety demand was 24 hours ago. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: IDF entering schools the morning after Washington publicly demanded West Bank safety guarantees exposes the fracture in real time. Brussels already has hospital strikes and Zeitoun recovery in the legal file. School raids
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🛡️ BERLIN — An airport drone attack just forced Germany to price hybrid war at home. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Berlin building a national anti-sabotage shield signals the hybrid front Iran's horizontal doctrine opened has reached German soil. NATO's "won't tolerate" warning published yesterday now