🏛️ BEIRUT — Lebanon's PM just told Hezbollah to stand down. Publicly. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Nawaf Salam calling Hezbollah a political force — not a resistance army — is disarmament language dressed as diplomatic advice. With Lebanon ceasefire now a formal deal condition, Salam wants Beirut to have agency in the outcome, not just absorb it. Hezbollah won't comply — but the statement publicly narrows their domestic veto.
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📉 MARKETS — Tech leads the selloff; Iran is the reason Wall Street gives. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Equities are pricing the tanker strike, not the sanctions — those were pre-telegraphed. Tech sells hardest because it carries the most multiple compression risk in an oil-driven rate shock. If Brent holds above $92 and
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⚠️ TEHRAN — Tehran threatens back — but against what, exactly? 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Iran's retaliation vow is strategically ambiguous by design — it keeps every option open without committing to a specific domain or timeline. With the Pakistan channel still active and Hormuz already near-closed, Tehran's leverage is limited
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💥 HORMUZ — Iran just hit a tanker the US Navy was physically protecting. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Striking an escorted vessel is a deliberate test — Iran is forcing Washington to choose between absorbing a direct military humiliation or retaliating. A successful hit under escort collapses the escort program's deterrent value entirely.
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📉 BEIJING — Washington opens a second economic front on China before Xi-Trump talks. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Simultaneous pressure on two tracks — Iran secondary sanctions and overcapacity tariffs — forces Beijing to negotiate both or neither. Xi enters any summit holding fewer chips. For Iran, this dilutes China's capacity to absorb