Israeli Forces Strike Homes in Lebanon's Bint Jbeil During Funeral Period

💥 BINT JBEIL — Israel bombs homes in Lebanon while Tehran buries Khamenei. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Bint Jbeil is Hezbollah territory — strikes during the funeral window are exactly the trigger Washington feared. The MoU nominally holds a ceasefire; residential strikes break it politically. Tehran's hardliners carry live footage into post-July 9 Doha. Every frame of rubble narrows Iran's room to return without looking like it accepted Israeli impunity.

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Red Sea Traffic Slows as Houthi Attacks Deter Saudi-Bound Shipping

🚢 RED SEA — Shipping data moves markets before any official statement does. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Measurable traffic slowdown confirms Houthis are achieving strategic effect without closing Bab al-Mandeb entirely. Partial deterrence is enough: insurers reprice, operators reroute, Saudi export timelines slip. With Yanbu already struck and Hormuz near-closed, even partial

breaking

Oil Drops Over 5% as US Strike Pause Cuts War Premium

📉 MARKETS — A 5% drop while a mine just exploded in Hormuz tells you the price was pure fear. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Brent had climbed 30%+ on simultaneous chokepoint closure risk. The pause deflates that war premium before any deal exists. Tehran is rebuilding, mines remain in Hormuz, and the tanker explosion

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CENTCOM Chief Recommended Halting Iran Strikes, Citing Diminishing Returns

🎖️ CENTCOM — Cooper stopped the campaign because finishing it would restart the war. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The 20% figure is the strategic trap: those remaining targets require major combat operations — not surgical strikes. Cooper's recommendation converts the pause from political gesture into military conclusion. Tehran now knows the ceiling. Variable:

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Araghchi Warns Ukraine: Caspian Ship Attack 'Cannot Go Unanswered'

🎯 ARAGHCHI — Calling Lavrov and Kallas in the same breath is the tell. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Araghchi's "Israel's behest" framing links Ukraine's Caspian strike to the Iran-Israel front, giving Tehran legal-political cover to retaliate against Kyiv without opening a declared new war.

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Red Sea Traffic Slows as Houthi Attacks Deter Saudi-Bound Shipping

Oil Drops Over 5% as US Strike Pause Cuts War Premium

CENTCOM Chief Recommended Halting Iran Strikes, Citing Diminishing Returns

Araghchi Warns Ukraine: Caspian Ship Attack 'Cannot Go Unanswered'