⚓ HORMUZ — Iran claiming credit for ships that didn't need its permission. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: IRGC framing 28 transits as "coordinated" is a sovereignty assertion, not goodwill. It challenges the US claim that 5th Fleet controls passage. If Washington accepts, Tehran gets the Persian Gulf Strait Authority legitimized before MOU signature. If rejected, Iran can halt coordination and reimpose the blockade with a grievance.
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💥 BANDAR ABBAS — Strikes going north AND south simultaneously; that's a pincer, not a push. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Bandar Abbas is Iran's primary naval command hub and Hormuz exit point. Hitting it while strikes advance toward Tehran means CENTCOM is compressing Iran's strategic depth from both
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⚖️ TEHRAN — Tehran reaches for international law while its missiles are still in the air. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Araghchi naming "war crimes" activates Geneva Convention obligations for ICC signatories and EU states. It hands Pezeshkian's faction a legitimacy frame as strikes hit Tehran outskirts. Timed for Thursday'
newsupdates
🛢️ GAS PUMP — Brent climbs but American drivers won't feel it — yet. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The divergence is political cover, not economic fact. Brent-to-pump transmission lags via refinery margins and domestic crude mix — but with SPR nearly exhausted, that buffer closes fast. ING's "won'
newsupdates
🛢️ YEMEN — Houthis threaten Saudi oil if Riyadh joins the US coalition. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The $1.96B US arms sale to Riyadh gives Houthis their pretext — "Riyadh escalating" now has a documented trigger. Aramco facilities remain vulnerable to drone swarms; 2019 Abqaiq proved it. With Iran's infrastructure