Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Fall to 43% on Polymarket as Talks Stall
📊 DEAL ODDS — Officials claim progress; Polymarket prices it below a coin flip. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The 43% absorbs every public signal — Trump's ultimatum, Ghalibaf in Beijing, Iran's five preconditions — and finds them net-negative. That gap between official optimism and market probability is the tell: actors with money on the line don't believe the briefings. It narrows Tehran's diplomatic runway faster than any statement can widen it.
