💥 IRGC — Tehran confirmed strikes, not just threatened them. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Iran moving from declaration to execution resets the escalation ladder — IRGC announced retaliation last night, now it's confirmed kinetic action. Every US asset in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf is now an active target, not a stated one. The 60-day roadmap is over in practice.
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🏛️ WHITE HOUSE — Netanyahu arrives while Thursday's address has no terms attached. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: The visit forces alignment on the one question unresolved: does Thursday mean resuming strikes or codifying the pause? Netanyahu wants Iran's nuclear remnants targeted — Cooper's 20% problem. Trump wants a deal
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⏱️ TARGETS — Trump names Pickaxe Mountain with a deal deadline now attached. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Previously Trump threatened Pickaxe without active talks; now it's tied to a live Oman channel. Naming the nuclear site publicly forces any deal to cover Iran's nuclear posture, not just Hormuz. Oman'
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🕊️ CEASEFIRE TEXT — Washington signed away the opposition's premise. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: A US sovereignty and non-interference clause written into the ceasefire text is the concession no one named publicly. It constrains future US support for Pahlavi or protest movements — not as policy preference but as treaty obligation. Tehran
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🚢 BAB EL-MANDEB — Shipping returns on hope, not on any Houthi stand-down order. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: Traffic rising signals traders pricing in resolution before it exists — same dynamic driving Brent lower. Houthis haven't formally ceased operations; Saudi tankers remain exposed. If Thursday restarts strikes, this recovery reverses immediately.