Fed Unlikely to Hike This Week Despite One-in-Three Market Odds, Oil Volatility Cited

📉 FED — Markets are pricing rate risk the Fed itself won't take this week. 📌 LOOK CLOSER: With Brent swinging 5%+ in single sessions on pause signals and drone strikes, the Fed can't read the inflation trajectory. Hiking into a war premium that could reverse on Thursday is the wrong move — but holding signals tolerance for oil-driven inflation. European bond markets absorb the ambiguity either way. Variable: Thursday's Trump address resets the energy picture before the Fed even decides.