π’ RED SEA β A new attack while every hull that fled Hormuz rerouted here. π LOOK CLOSER: Houthi attacks never stopped, but vessels fleeing IRGC Hormuz tolls rerouted south β concentrating targets. A cargo hit now confirms there is no safe corridor: Hormuz costs money, Red Sea costs hulls. For European importers absorbing Hormuz premium, a simultaneous Red Sea flare compounds insurance rates and delays.
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π₯ IRAN ENERGY β The power cutting Iran's military is also cutting its heating grid. π LOOK CLOSER: Iran self-supplies nearly all domestic gas β capacity loss means civilian heating and power failures. Turkey receives Iranian gas via pipeline; major loss strains Ankara mid-conflict, handing ErdoΔan leverage. Domestically, shortages accelerate
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β HORMUZ β Tehran is flexing on the one demand that sank every ceasefire. π LOOK CLOSER: Hormuz sovereignty has blocked every deal formula for 150 days. Tehran sourcing 'flexibility' to Al Jazeera before Thursday signals Oman extracted a concession or Iran is pre-positioning a face-save. Key question: shared
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ποΈ HORMUZ β Oman finally has a named formula; the dispute is whether Tehran wants it. π LOOK CLOSER: A "regional mechanism" sidesteps sovereignty-vs-navigation by distributing control multilaterally β Iran gets governance language, the US avoids maritime law precedent. Key variable: who's in the mechanism. Gulf state inclusion
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π HORMUZ β Iran's FM calls Riyadh and Muscat simultaneously before Thursday. π LOOK CLOSER: Calling Oman β the back-channel host β and Saudi Arabia β proxy-war target β in the same window signals Tehran building regional cover before Thursday. Riyadh's buy-in neutralizes the Iraqi militia narrative; Oman confirms the